Yahoo!Finance September 18, 2024
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Residential real estate is a large asset class with a strong impact on the economy as a whole. We all need a place to live, and multifamily real estate is considered a steady investment.
Recently, concerns have been raised about the rising number of distressed multifamily real estate loans. CreqIQ reported that these loans continued to move in the wrong direction, rising to 11.0% from 8.4% last month. Multifamily is now only behind retail when it comes to distress.
However, some positive data comes from Newmark, which has issued its United States Multifamily Capital Report. Three data points indicate that multifamily may rise to meet the challenges it faces.
The report showed that demand for the second quarter was up by 102%. Another encouraging sign was that, despite some signs of weakness in the Sun Belt, demand in Sun Belt markets within the top 50 markets was actually on the upswing. Renting remains more affordable than homeownership in many top urban markets, with the spread between renting and owning at $1,114 in the quarter. Although mortgage rates are starting to drop, many people still opt to rent, waiting for housing prices to fall.
If people are worried about their finances, renting could become more attractive. The second quarter data from the New York Fed found that auto loans rose by $10 billion to $1.63 trillion and credit card balances increased by $27 billion to reach $1.14 trillion.
One hurdle for multifamily real estate is supply. Supply was at its highest rate ever in the second quarter. This trend is expected to continue for the rest of the year and gradually weaken into next year. Supply may outstrip demand in some markets, sending rental prices downward slightly, but this is likely temporary. Units under construction have been down for the last four quarters.
Transaction volume has been sluggish for several years, but there are signs of light at the end of the tunnel. The Newmark report found that transactions were up by 20.4%, representing the first positive change since the second quarter of 2022. Los Angeles and Dallas led the way in sales volume, with the Southwest and Southeast representing 45.8% of all sales volume.
Dry powder is going down as deals get done, and available capital is down 10.3% since its peak in December 2022. Fundraising was up by 31% and more funds are raising capital than in recent months.
Multifamily owners have had to deal with rising costs over the last few quarters, but there seems to be some relief coming, albeit slowly. Expenses were up 5.1% in the quarter, but the pace of increase is trending downward. The biggest concern for many operators right now is insurance. Since the pandemic, insurance has been a larger part of the total expenses. Prices are rising in that area but are coming down from recent peaks.
The lending climate is a shadow over the future of multifamily. Loan originations are still down, but deals are being made and some lenders are noticing an increase in multifamily lending. The report noted that regional banks must reduce commercial real estate debt exposure. Newmark forecasts this will play out over the next several years as $669 billion in multifamily loans mature between now and 2026.
Over the long term, multifamily tends to be a very resilient sector. The number of loans in distress does represent a material concern, but it also creates a climate where more transactions may occur. Over the long term, issues around housing affordability and the more transient nature of much of the workforce should keep multifamily demand strong in most markets.
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